Opening Day 2011

OK, let’s put our little plan into action and see what our 2011 Twins look like:

Starting pitching:

1. Liriano ($4 million)

2. Pavano ($8 million)

3. Duensing (min)

4. Slowey ($1.5 million)

5. Gibson/Bromberg (min)

In this scenario, the Twins sign Liriano to a 3-4 year deal this offseason and officially install him as the ace of the staff.  We trade both Baker and Blackburn for prospects and use the savings to re-sign Pavano to a 3 year $25 million deal to give us a solid 1-2 punch for the foreseeable future.  Duensing has clearly earned a permanent place in the starting rotation after two solid seasons in the majors.  Slowey gets another year to find his groove and either Kyle Gibson or David Bromberg get their chance to win the final rotation spot out of spring training.  If neither top prospect seizes the opportunity, there are others in the organization that could step up to fill the role early in the year.

Outfield/DH:

LF: Span ($1 million)

CF: Coco Crisp ($5 million)

RF: Young ($6 million)

DH/OF: Kubel ($5.25 million)

This assumes that Michael Cuddyer is traded and that Oakland decides not to pick up Crisp’s option for next year.  Crisp could be signed to a 1-2 year deal giving the Twins an above average defensive CF (UZR of 8.0 in 2010) without sacrificing much at the plate. (Cuddyer: .270/.342/.450 in 10 seasons / Crisp: .277/.332/.410 in 9 seasons)

Span could be moved back to left field, where he posted a 6.2 UZR in 2009, and Delmon could shift to RF, where he posted a respectable UZR of 3.5 with the Rays in 2007.   These moves would, in my opinion, improve our defense considerably and trim about $5 million from the OF payroll.  In addition, Crisp, normally a leadoff hitter, could provide a decent option in the #2 spot behind Span. He would also serve as a solid bridge to one of the organization’s young CF prospects (Aaron Hicks, Joe Benson, Angel Morales).  Looking to the future, if two of these prospects approach their potential, Delmon Young becomes a valuable luxury, and could be traded when his value is high. 

Infield:

C: Mauer ($23 million)

1B: Morneau ($15 million)

2B: Casilla (~$1 million)

SS: Hardy ($7 million)

3B: Valencia (min)

While I didn’t point out the infield as a major area of focus, there are certainly tough decisions to be made here as well.  A Hudson/Hardy double play combination looked pretty good going into the year, and in 2011 both could be gone. The hope was that the pair could stabilize the middle infield for the Twins while adding a solid #2 batter (Hudson) and a power hitting shortstop (Hardy) to an already dangerous lineup.  Hudson delivered for the most part, though he only played in 126 games this year, and fought injuries even when he was in the lineup.  Hardy had a tough year, as he failed to bounce back from a tough 2009 in large part due to injuries that limited him to only 101 games.  I would be comfortable filling one of the two roles from within, while re-signing the other.  Since I’m not ready to give up on Hardy just yet, I would hold onto him and fill second base with a still intriguing Alexi Casilla.  We certainly have enough utility infielders for spot starts and filler. 

Bullpen:

Nathan ($11.5 million)

Capps ($7 million)

Crain ($5 million)

Mijares ($.6 million)

Perkins ($.7 million)

BP: (min)

BP: (min)

A lot has been made about the bullpen.  There is no doubt that it has been a luxury the past couple of years, and that some important decisions must be made.  The team must decide whether to bring back Capps, Crain, Guerier, Fuentes, Rauch, and Flores (only kidding).  The cost of keeping both Nathan and Capps is the biggest problem.  Because of the nature of his injury, there is no way we can trade Nathan’s salary, even if we wanted to.  Capps is a decent insurance policy, but is far too expensive for what he gives us, especially if he’s not closing games.  Personally, I never liked the Capps trade, mostly because I felt giving up Ramos was too high a price.  Bill Smith has stated on multiple occasions that he never would have made the deal if it was for a ½ season rental.  That’s all fine and dandy, but I don’t like having to justify a bad trade by overpaying for a middle of the road setup guy / closer.  The best case scenario is that Nathan steps back into the closer’s spot, we re-sign Crain to join Capps and Mijares, and get some significant help from the farm system.  This could include some combination of Perkins, Slama, Delaney, Waldrop, Burnett, Gutierrez, and maybe Billy Bullock at various points during the season. It also means saying farewell to solid guys like Guerier, Rauch and Fuentes (oh, and Flores too). 

Bench: Who does that leave sitting on the pine for the 2011 Twins? 

DH/PH: Thome ($3 million)

IF: Punto ($1.5 million)

IF: Tolbert (min)

OF: Revere (min)

PH: “utility batter”

If we go with a 12 man pitching staff, the bench doesn’t look much different, assuming that we re-sign Thome.  Maybe I’m giving him too much credit, but I honestly feel that he would accept less money to finish his career in Minnesota.  I would be in favor of going with only 11 pitchers if we can sign a decent bench player who can pinch hit, and somewhat resemble a MLB defender.  I’d also be in favor of re-signing Punto, mainly because we should be able to sign him at a reasonable price, and because I just can’t picture him wearing another uniform (kind of like Denny Hocking).   

Totals:

SP: $13.5 million

BP: $26 million

OF/DH: $17.25 million

IF: $46 million

Bench: $4.5 million

Total: ~$107 million

If we believe that the Twins can afford to raise the payroll a bit this year, we’re left with around $10-13 million to pay minimum salaries and sign a veteran player or two.  After 2011, Nathan’s salary comes off the books, the pressure to keep Capps goes away, and Thome likely retires, leaving some additional funds to sign replacement players. 

Twins Offseason (Part 2): GM for a day

Below is a  simple 7 step program that addresses many of the challenges discussed in yesterday's post.

7 Steps to Offseason Success

1. Coaching Continuity: Sign Gardy and the rest of the staff to fair extensions and continue the stability in leadership that defines this club.
2. Lock up Liriano: As previously suggested, Liriano should be viewed as the key to this pitching staff, as he gives a different look from anything else that trots out to the mound.  Not only is he a left handed strikeout machine, but he may be the only pitcher in the entire organization that profiles as the true “ace” that so many people claim we need.  Extending him an offer this winter would provide him the insurance he deserves after battling back from Tommy John surgery, but would also give the Twins some cost control over the next 3-4 seasons.  Barring a trade for an established ace, this is the best option the Twins have available to them this winter. 
3. Trade a starting pitcher (or two): With Baker and Blackburn locked up in long term deals, and Slowey next on the list, it is important that the Twins explore trade options now for these assets.  All three players have had their ups and downs at the major league level, but all three deserve a chance to start somewhere.  I just don’t see this happening with the Twins.  With the “B” boys both locked up to long term deals, Slowey is certainly the most tradeable asset.  With an estimated 2011 salary of $1.5 million, however, I’d first look to move Baker ($5 million) and/or Blackburn ($3 million).  I expect a much better year from Slowey in 2011, so I’d hold onto him for at least another season.  I feel like we have enough depth in the organization (Bromberg, Gibson, Manship) to replace these two mid-rotation starters.
4. Trade Michael Cuddyer:  I first want to say that I’m a big fan of “Cuddy” and all that he has meant to the Twins both on and off the field.  He has done an admirable job as a utility player over the last few years, and has provided decent (though sporadic) offensive production.  He is also a high quality guy and a great asset to the community.  Once considered one of the Twins “core” players, it may be time to let him go.  The challenge here is getting someone to take his $10.5 million contract for next year.  The Twins could save some money by agreeing to pay part of the deal in exchange for a decent prospect or two, or they could simply give him away and free up the room to fill other needs.  This will be a difficult (and largely unpopular) decision to make by Bill Smith and the gang.
5. Sign a true center fielder: This move is dependent on both the Cuddyer trade and the return of a healthy Justin Morneau.  I would be happy to sacrifice some offensive production in exchange for improved defense in center field.  This would allow Span to move over to left field where he belongs, and Young to take his rightful place in right field, where his defensive liabilities can be masked by his strong arm as Cuddyer’s have been for years. 
6. Re-sign Jim Thome: This one may seem obvious, and certainly will depend on the offers he gets elsewhere, but his value to the team is huge.  With the lack of hitters on the bench already, we can’t afford to let him walk.  It is clear that he was excited to come here, loved being here, and would like to come back for another year.  No one is going to sign him to a multi-year deal at age 41, and with his history of back issues, it seems fair to expect another incentive-laden deal for the future hall of famer. 
7. Sign a “utility hitter”: In much the same way as I’m OK with a defense first starting center fielder, I’d be fine with a bench hitter that gives us “Delmon-esque” defensive performance. As with the starting staff, the Twins just don’t have enough options on the current roster, as all of our pinch hitters look essentially the same (Punto, Tolbert, Casilla, Repko, Butera). 

In part 3 of this posting, we’ll take a look at the potential impact of acting on these suggestions.

Twins Wrap-up: Offseason Plans

As the Rangers and Giants prepare to battle it out for baseball supremacy, the Twins brain trust has a difficult task ahead of them.  After a season that featured a $100 million payroll, a fantastic inaugural season at a beautiful new ballpark, and a brief flirtation with the playoffs (again), it is time to make some tough decisions before reporting to spring training in February. 

Note: This is the first of a three part discussion looking at my thoughts on the 2011 Twins (and beyond).

There has been plenty of solid analysis into the state of the Twins escalating payroll.  Whether you believe that the Pohlad family should break the bank for a championship or understand that they are running a business, it should be clear that some adjustments need to be made for 2011 and beyond.  The team made a number of high profile moves last winter due to the increased revenue from Target Field and because the big contracts for their core players hadn’t fully kicked in yet.  In addition, the injury to Joe Nathan actually gave the team more flexibility to spend, since much of his contract (~$9 million) was recouped in insurance payments. 

 

Instead of looking at this problem as purely a budgeting exercise, the team needs to develop a longer term strategy to ensure the continued success of this team.  I believe that this may require some bold (and potentially unpopular) moves this winter in order to give us the best chance at continuing a winning tradition at Target Field. 

Part I will take a look at the team’s assets and liabilities going into next year:

Team Strengths:

• Target Field: After years of struggling to get by in the ‘Dome, the Twins finally have a 1^st class ballpark to play with.  As long as the team stays competitive and weather patterns don’t change dramatically, we can expect revenues to hold steady and potentially increase slightly in the next few years.  This should allow the club to spend between $100 - $120 million in payroll each year. 
• Strong nucleus: Assuming a healthy Justin Morneau, the Twins have a great young core to build upon that also includes Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Delmon Young, Danny Valencia and Francisco Liriano. 
• Pitching Depth: In addition to Liriano, the club has control over Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing from last year’s rotation, as well as a number of others knocking at the door.  In the bullpen, the team is equally deep, though there are a number of decisions that must be made starting this winter.
• Solid and stable coaching: In addition to AL manager of the year Ron Gardenhire, the Twins have perhaps the best pitching coach in baseball in Rick Anderson.  Equally impressive has been the work of Joe Vavra, who has quietly helped the Twins become one of the better hitting teams in baseball (at least in the regular season). 
• Minor league prospects:  Many people point to the Twins lack of star power in the minor leagues, but they are currently ranked in the top half of baseball in terms of overall talent.  What is very clear is the depth of the system, which can be attributed to the front office’s reluctance to part with top prospects in trades (Wilson Ramos being a clear exception).  In any case, players like Span, Valencia, Trevor Plouffe, Luke Hughes, Deunsing, and Burnett have shown in recent years that, given the chance, they can be productive players in the big leagues, despite the lack of eye-popping minor leagues statistics. 

Team Needs:

• Starting Pitching: While the lack of a dominant “ace” starter was apparent in the playoffs, I tend to agree that Liriano has the potential to fill that role.  Beyond Liriano, most other pitchers in the rotation are basically the same guy.  We have a number of solid, mid-rotation, low strikeout guys who throw the ball over the plate and depend on good defense.  In my opinion, good teams tend to get too comfortable facing this rotation over a long series (or season).  This becomes especially true in the playoffs.  Quite simply, we need to shake things up a bit.
• Outfield Defense: Overall, the outfield defense has degraded significantly over the last few years, starting with the departure of Torii Hunter via free agency.  Denard Span, while a slightly above-average center fielder by the numbers, clearly is not the best long term solution in the role. Our current trio of corner options (Young, Cuddyer and Kubel) are well below average defensively by any available measure.  When combined with a starting staff that gives up a high percentage of fly balls, this should be a major concern for the club. 
• Hitting Depth: The Twins bench players have traditionally been good fielding utility players and offensive liabilities.  This makes it harder to justify late inning defensive substitutions, especially on nights when Joe Mauer is given a day off, as it further weakens an already suspect lineup.

Stay tuned for my next posting, when I pretend to be Bill Smith for a day.

Catching up

Life gets busy, and blogging suffers.  Here are some of my random thoughts about the goings-on in the 'Sota sports scene.

• I'm nearly recovered from the disappointing end to the Twins season.  Watching the Rangers on the verge of knocking off the Yanks is definitely bittersweet.  While I'm always happy to watch the Yankees suffer, this only confirms my belief that the Twins missed out on a golden opportunity this year.  Watch for my thoughts on offseason moves in a future post.
• The T-Wolves may in fact be for real.  As long as they manage to steer clear of the Pacers this year, they will make a lot of basketball "experts" look stupid.  Now sitting at 5-2 for the pre-season (0-2 vs. Indiana), I can honestly say I'm impressed.  As noted previously, they are vastly improved at every position, are much more athletic, can actually shoot the 3, and have somehow learned how to defend (at times).  Hey, when Corey Brewer is the worst player on your entire roster, it's not all bad.
• I watched the Wild tonight, and they looked really good.  If they keep it up, they may earn a blog posting all to themselves. The most entertaining part of the game happened about 13 minutes into the second period, when Rick Rypien started a fight with Brad Staubitz, and then roughed up a Wild fan on his way to the locker room.  It didn't look like the fan was doing anything other than clapping and perhaps talking a bit.  I'm sure protocol demanded that the fan be ejected from the game, but if that were me, I'd be looking for a pretty big apology (and perhaps a lawyer).  I certainly hope that Rypien gets suspended and the fan (whoever you are) get's some free tickets and a refund (he already got some TV time and a nice ovation as he was escorted out). UPDATE: As it turns out, the fan was not ejected, but simply moved to another part of the arena. Nice handling of the situation by the Wild staff.  Also, the NHL will suspend Rick Rypien, according this report.
• I guess it wouldn't be the Vikings if we just had to talk about football.  The Love boat, The Original Wizzinator, StarCaps and now the Favre "sexting" scandal.  Maybe if we were playing better on the field, the media wouldn't spend so much time writing about the other crap. 

Well, I guess that's about it.  Did I miss anything? 

I suppose this "catch up" wouldn't be complete without a few comments about the Gopher football program.  I'll admit it, I liked Brewster's confidence, enjoyed seeing a top level recruit commit once in a while, and assumed that better athletes would translate into more wins on the field.  As it turns out, switching coordinators every year probably isn't a good idea, and the ability to teach players is probably a better trait in a coach than the ability to recruit them.  Oh, and can someone please tell me why no one is running for state legislature solely on the basis of allowing beer at TCF Bank stadium?  What is the purpose of building a beautiful new stadium and then preventing legal adults from purchasing a cold one to dull the pain of watching these games?  With all the budget cuts going on, you'd think this would be a pretty easy one to figure out.

One more thing...it may be time to do something about this.

Thanks for reading!

Was it a dream?

I honestly woke up this morning feeling like this was all a dream.  It all happened so fast, and it was so familiar, that I assumed I had to be dreaming.  More like a nightmare.  So, over 8 months after the Twins reported to spring training, after all the highs and lows of another season of Twins baseball, here I sit trying to figure out how we got swept AGAIN by those damn Yankees! 

Though I had planned to blog a little bit during the series, I just couldn't bring myself back to the keyboard after the disappointment of game 1.  How quickly all of the high fives and fist pumps were replaced by sighs and shaking heads.  I didn't know it then, but the series changed the moment Curtis Granderson and his .234 batting average against left handers slid into 3rd base.  Before that moment, Liriano, who had held lefties to a .211 batting average for the year, had shown the dominance we expected of our ace, Target field seemed like a well earned home field advantage, and the invincibility of the Yankees was truly pushed to the back of our minds.  

Sure, Jose Mijares came in and wiggled out of the inning without further damage.  Yes, we were able to grind out another run courtesy of a bases loaded walk, but there was a different feeling in the air.  The shrugs came back, the doubts overcame our swagger, and the Twins of 2010 became the hard luck underdogs of so many years past.  When J.J. Hardy stood at the plate with a chance to sieze back the series in the 7th, it was Sabathia that made the big pitch, and Hardy that flailed helplessly at a ball out of the strike zone.  When Mark Teixiera deposited Jesse Crain's hanging slider into the right field bleachers, you could almost hear 40,000 fans exclaim, "here we go again!" When Jim Thome stepped to the plate in the bottom of the 7th to face righthander David Robertson, we should have been expecting to see the ball drop into Target Plaza.  The Yankees had already used up their only lefthanded reliever, Thome hit .302/.455/.698 against righties this year, and this was the season that the "Yankees curse" would finally be broken.  Instead, when strike three bounced off the dirt to end the inning, it didn't seem as surprising as it should have. 

From that point forward, the series went pretty much the same way.  Every time the Twins had a big opportunity, we were left shaking our heads.  It just never felt like we had a chance after the disappointment of game 1.  In the end, we didn't lose because the Yankees spent more money than us; we didn't lose because they worked harder than us; we didn't even lose because they were better than us.  In my humble opinion, we lost the series because we expected it to happen, and so did they.