Opening Day 2011

OK, let’s put our little plan into action and see what our 2011 Twins look like:

Starting pitching:

1. Liriano ($4 million)

2. Pavano ($8 million)

3. Duensing (min)

4. Slowey ($1.5 million)

5. Gibson/Bromberg (min)

In this scenario, the Twins sign Liriano to a 3-4 year deal this offseason and officially install him as the ace of the staff.  We trade both Baker and Blackburn for prospects and use the savings to re-sign Pavano to a 3 year $25 million deal to give us a solid 1-2 punch for the foreseeable future.  Duensing has clearly earned a permanent place in the starting rotation after two solid seasons in the majors.  Slowey gets another year to find his groove and either Kyle Gibson or David Bromberg get their chance to win the final rotation spot out of spring training.  If neither top prospect seizes the opportunity, there are others in the organization that could step up to fill the role early in the year.

Outfield/DH:

LF: Span ($1 million)

CF: Coco Crisp ($5 million)

RF: Young ($6 million)

DH/OF: Kubel ($5.25 million)

This assumes that Michael Cuddyer is traded and that Oakland decides not to pick up Crisp’s option for next year.  Crisp could be signed to a 1-2 year deal giving the Twins an above average defensive CF (UZR of 8.0 in 2010) without sacrificing much at the plate. (Cuddyer: .270/.342/.450 in 10 seasons / Crisp: .277/.332/.410 in 9 seasons)

Span could be moved back to left field, where he posted a 6.2 UZR in 2009, and Delmon could shift to RF, where he posted a respectable UZR of 3.5 with the Rays in 2007.   These moves would, in my opinion, improve our defense considerably and trim about $5 million from the OF payroll.  In addition, Crisp, normally a leadoff hitter, could provide a decent option in the #2 spot behind Span. He would also serve as a solid bridge to one of the organization’s young CF prospects (Aaron Hicks, Joe Benson, Angel Morales).  Looking to the future, if two of these prospects approach their potential, Delmon Young becomes a valuable luxury, and could be traded when his value is high. 

Infield:

C: Mauer ($23 million)

1B: Morneau ($15 million)

2B: Casilla (~$1 million)

SS: Hardy ($7 million)

3B: Valencia (min)

While I didn’t point out the infield as a major area of focus, there are certainly tough decisions to be made here as well.  A Hudson/Hardy double play combination looked pretty good going into the year, and in 2011 both could be gone. The hope was that the pair could stabilize the middle infield for the Twins while adding a solid #2 batter (Hudson) and a power hitting shortstop (Hardy) to an already dangerous lineup.  Hudson delivered for the most part, though he only played in 126 games this year, and fought injuries even when he was in the lineup.  Hardy had a tough year, as he failed to bounce back from a tough 2009 in large part due to injuries that limited him to only 101 games.  I would be comfortable filling one of the two roles from within, while re-signing the other.  Since I’m not ready to give up on Hardy just yet, I would hold onto him and fill second base with a still intriguing Alexi Casilla.  We certainly have enough utility infielders for spot starts and filler. 

Bullpen:

Nathan ($11.5 million)

Capps ($7 million)

Crain ($5 million)

Mijares ($.6 million)

Perkins ($.7 million)

BP: (min)

BP: (min)

A lot has been made about the bullpen.  There is no doubt that it has been a luxury the past couple of years, and that some important decisions must be made.  The team must decide whether to bring back Capps, Crain, Guerier, Fuentes, Rauch, and Flores (only kidding).  The cost of keeping both Nathan and Capps is the biggest problem.  Because of the nature of his injury, there is no way we can trade Nathan’s salary, even if we wanted to.  Capps is a decent insurance policy, but is far too expensive for what he gives us, especially if he’s not closing games.  Personally, I never liked the Capps trade, mostly because I felt giving up Ramos was too high a price.  Bill Smith has stated on multiple occasions that he never would have made the deal if it was for a ½ season rental.  That’s all fine and dandy, but I don’t like having to justify a bad trade by overpaying for a middle of the road setup guy / closer.  The best case scenario is that Nathan steps back into the closer’s spot, we re-sign Crain to join Capps and Mijares, and get some significant help from the farm system.  This could include some combination of Perkins, Slama, Delaney, Waldrop, Burnett, Gutierrez, and maybe Billy Bullock at various points during the season. It also means saying farewell to solid guys like Guerier, Rauch and Fuentes (oh, and Flores too). 

Bench: Who does that leave sitting on the pine for the 2011 Twins? 

DH/PH: Thome ($3 million)

IF: Punto ($1.5 million)

IF: Tolbert (min)

OF: Revere (min)

PH: “utility batter”

If we go with a 12 man pitching staff, the bench doesn’t look much different, assuming that we re-sign Thome.  Maybe I’m giving him too much credit, but I honestly feel that he would accept less money to finish his career in Minnesota.  I would be in favor of going with only 11 pitchers if we can sign a decent bench player who can pinch hit, and somewhat resemble a MLB defender.  I’d also be in favor of re-signing Punto, mainly because we should be able to sign him at a reasonable price, and because I just can’t picture him wearing another uniform (kind of like Denny Hocking).   

Totals:

SP: $13.5 million

BP: $26 million

OF/DH: $17.25 million

IF: $46 million

Bench: $4.5 million

Total: ~$107 million

If we believe that the Twins can afford to raise the payroll a bit this year, we’re left with around $10-13 million to pay minimum salaries and sign a veteran player or two.  After 2011, Nathan’s salary comes off the books, the pressure to keep Capps goes away, and Thome likely retires, leaving some additional funds to sign replacement players. 

Twins Offseason (Part 2): GM for a day

Below is a  simple 7 step program that addresses many of the challenges discussed in yesterday's post.

7 Steps to Offseason Success

1. Coaching Continuity: Sign Gardy and the rest of the staff to fair extensions and continue the stability in leadership that defines this club.
2. Lock up Liriano: As previously suggested, Liriano should be viewed as the key to this pitching staff, as he gives a different look from anything else that trots out to the mound.  Not only is he a left handed strikeout machine, but he may be the only pitcher in the entire organization that profiles as the true “ace” that so many people claim we need.  Extending him an offer this winter would provide him the insurance he deserves after battling back from Tommy John surgery, but would also give the Twins some cost control over the next 3-4 seasons.  Barring a trade for an established ace, this is the best option the Twins have available to them this winter. 
3. Trade a starting pitcher (or two): With Baker and Blackburn locked up in long term deals, and Slowey next on the list, it is important that the Twins explore trade options now for these assets.  All three players have had their ups and downs at the major league level, but all three deserve a chance to start somewhere.  I just don’t see this happening with the Twins.  With the “B” boys both locked up to long term deals, Slowey is certainly the most tradeable asset.  With an estimated 2011 salary of $1.5 million, however, I’d first look to move Baker ($5 million) and/or Blackburn ($3 million).  I expect a much better year from Slowey in 2011, so I’d hold onto him for at least another season.  I feel like we have enough depth in the organization (Bromberg, Gibson, Manship) to replace these two mid-rotation starters.
4. Trade Michael Cuddyer:  I first want to say that I’m a big fan of “Cuddy” and all that he has meant to the Twins both on and off the field.  He has done an admirable job as a utility player over the last few years, and has provided decent (though sporadic) offensive production.  He is also a high quality guy and a great asset to the community.  Once considered one of the Twins “core” players, it may be time to let him go.  The challenge here is getting someone to take his $10.5 million contract for next year.  The Twins could save some money by agreeing to pay part of the deal in exchange for a decent prospect or two, or they could simply give him away and free up the room to fill other needs.  This will be a difficult (and largely unpopular) decision to make by Bill Smith and the gang.
5. Sign a true center fielder: This move is dependent on both the Cuddyer trade and the return of a healthy Justin Morneau.  I would be happy to sacrifice some offensive production in exchange for improved defense in center field.  This would allow Span to move over to left field where he belongs, and Young to take his rightful place in right field, where his defensive liabilities can be masked by his strong arm as Cuddyer’s have been for years. 
6. Re-sign Jim Thome: This one may seem obvious, and certainly will depend on the offers he gets elsewhere, but his value to the team is huge.  With the lack of hitters on the bench already, we can’t afford to let him walk.  It is clear that he was excited to come here, loved being here, and would like to come back for another year.  No one is going to sign him to a multi-year deal at age 41, and with his history of back issues, it seems fair to expect another incentive-laden deal for the future hall of famer. 
7. Sign a “utility hitter”: In much the same way as I’m OK with a defense first starting center fielder, I’d be fine with a bench hitter that gives us “Delmon-esque” defensive performance. As with the starting staff, the Twins just don’t have enough options on the current roster, as all of our pinch hitters look essentially the same (Punto, Tolbert, Casilla, Repko, Butera). 

In part 3 of this posting, we’ll take a look at the potential impact of acting on these suggestions.

Twins Wrap-up: Offseason Plans

As the Rangers and Giants prepare to battle it out for baseball supremacy, the Twins brain trust has a difficult task ahead of them.  After a season that featured a $100 million payroll, a fantastic inaugural season at a beautiful new ballpark, and a brief flirtation with the playoffs (again), it is time to make some tough decisions before reporting to spring training in February. 

Note: This is the first of a three part discussion looking at my thoughts on the 2011 Twins (and beyond).

There has been plenty of solid analysis into the state of the Twins escalating payroll.  Whether you believe that the Pohlad family should break the bank for a championship or understand that they are running a business, it should be clear that some adjustments need to be made for 2011 and beyond.  The team made a number of high profile moves last winter due to the increased revenue from Target Field and because the big contracts for their core players hadn’t fully kicked in yet.  In addition, the injury to Joe Nathan actually gave the team more flexibility to spend, since much of his contract (~$9 million) was recouped in insurance payments. 

 

Instead of looking at this problem as purely a budgeting exercise, the team needs to develop a longer term strategy to ensure the continued success of this team.  I believe that this may require some bold (and potentially unpopular) moves this winter in order to give us the best chance at continuing a winning tradition at Target Field. 

Part I will take a look at the team’s assets and liabilities going into next year:

Team Strengths:

• Target Field: After years of struggling to get by in the ‘Dome, the Twins finally have a 1^st class ballpark to play with.  As long as the team stays competitive and weather patterns don’t change dramatically, we can expect revenues to hold steady and potentially increase slightly in the next few years.  This should allow the club to spend between $100 - $120 million in payroll each year. 
• Strong nucleus: Assuming a healthy Justin Morneau, the Twins have a great young core to build upon that also includes Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Delmon Young, Danny Valencia and Francisco Liriano. 
• Pitching Depth: In addition to Liriano, the club has control over Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing from last year’s rotation, as well as a number of others knocking at the door.  In the bullpen, the team is equally deep, though there are a number of decisions that must be made starting this winter.
• Solid and stable coaching: In addition to AL manager of the year Ron Gardenhire, the Twins have perhaps the best pitching coach in baseball in Rick Anderson.  Equally impressive has been the work of Joe Vavra, who has quietly helped the Twins become one of the better hitting teams in baseball (at least in the regular season). 
• Minor league prospects:  Many people point to the Twins lack of star power in the minor leagues, but they are currently ranked in the top half of baseball in terms of overall talent.  What is very clear is the depth of the system, which can be attributed to the front office’s reluctance to part with top prospects in trades (Wilson Ramos being a clear exception).  In any case, players like Span, Valencia, Trevor Plouffe, Luke Hughes, Deunsing, and Burnett have shown in recent years that, given the chance, they can be productive players in the big leagues, despite the lack of eye-popping minor leagues statistics. 

Team Needs:

• Starting Pitching: While the lack of a dominant “ace” starter was apparent in the playoffs, I tend to agree that Liriano has the potential to fill that role.  Beyond Liriano, most other pitchers in the rotation are basically the same guy.  We have a number of solid, mid-rotation, low strikeout guys who throw the ball over the plate and depend on good defense.  In my opinion, good teams tend to get too comfortable facing this rotation over a long series (or season).  This becomes especially true in the playoffs.  Quite simply, we need to shake things up a bit.
• Outfield Defense: Overall, the outfield defense has degraded significantly over the last few years, starting with the departure of Torii Hunter via free agency.  Denard Span, while a slightly above-average center fielder by the numbers, clearly is not the best long term solution in the role. Our current trio of corner options (Young, Cuddyer and Kubel) are well below average defensively by any available measure.  When combined with a starting staff that gives up a high percentage of fly balls, this should be a major concern for the club. 
• Hitting Depth: The Twins bench players have traditionally been good fielding utility players and offensive liabilities.  This makes it harder to justify late inning defensive substitutions, especially on nights when Joe Mauer is given a day off, as it further weakens an already suspect lineup.

Stay tuned for my next posting, when I pretend to be Bill Smith for a day.

Catching up

Life gets busy, and blogging suffers.  Here are some of my random thoughts about the goings-on in the 'Sota sports scene.

• I'm nearly recovered from the disappointing end to the Twins season.  Watching the Rangers on the verge of knocking off the Yanks is definitely bittersweet.  While I'm always happy to watch the Yankees suffer, this only confirms my belief that the Twins missed out on a golden opportunity this year.  Watch for my thoughts on offseason moves in a future post.
• The T-Wolves may in fact be for real.  As long as they manage to steer clear of the Pacers this year, they will make a lot of basketball "experts" look stupid.  Now sitting at 5-2 for the pre-season (0-2 vs. Indiana), I can honestly say I'm impressed.  As noted previously, they are vastly improved at every position, are much more athletic, can actually shoot the 3, and have somehow learned how to defend (at times).  Hey, when Corey Brewer is the worst player on your entire roster, it's not all bad.
• I watched the Wild tonight, and they looked really good.  If they keep it up, they may earn a blog posting all to themselves. The most entertaining part of the game happened about 13 minutes into the second period, when Rick Rypien started a fight with Brad Staubitz, and then roughed up a Wild fan on his way to the locker room.  It didn't look like the fan was doing anything other than clapping and perhaps talking a bit.  I'm sure protocol demanded that the fan be ejected from the game, but if that were me, I'd be looking for a pretty big apology (and perhaps a lawyer).  I certainly hope that Rypien gets suspended and the fan (whoever you are) get's some free tickets and a refund (he already got some TV time and a nice ovation as he was escorted out). UPDATE: As it turns out, the fan was not ejected, but simply moved to another part of the arena. Nice handling of the situation by the Wild staff.  Also, the NHL will suspend Rick Rypien, according this report.
• I guess it wouldn't be the Vikings if we just had to talk about football.  The Love boat, The Original Wizzinator, StarCaps and now the Favre "sexting" scandal.  Maybe if we were playing better on the field, the media wouldn't spend so much time writing about the other crap. 

Well, I guess that's about it.  Did I miss anything? 

I suppose this "catch up" wouldn't be complete without a few comments about the Gopher football program.  I'll admit it, I liked Brewster's confidence, enjoyed seeing a top level recruit commit once in a while, and assumed that better athletes would translate into more wins on the field.  As it turns out, switching coordinators every year probably isn't a good idea, and the ability to teach players is probably a better trait in a coach than the ability to recruit them.  Oh, and can someone please tell me why no one is running for state legislature solely on the basis of allowing beer at TCF Bank stadium?  What is the purpose of building a beautiful new stadium and then preventing legal adults from purchasing a cold one to dull the pain of watching these games?  With all the budget cuts going on, you'd think this would be a pretty easy one to figure out.

One more thing...it may be time to do something about this.

Thanks for reading!

Was it a dream?

I honestly woke up this morning feeling like this was all a dream.  It all happened so fast, and it was so familiar, that I assumed I had to be dreaming.  More like a nightmare.  So, over 8 months after the Twins reported to spring training, after all the highs and lows of another season of Twins baseball, here I sit trying to figure out how we got swept AGAIN by those damn Yankees! 

Though I had planned to blog a little bit during the series, I just couldn't bring myself back to the keyboard after the disappointment of game 1.  How quickly all of the high fives and fist pumps were replaced by sighs and shaking heads.  I didn't know it then, but the series changed the moment Curtis Granderson and his .234 batting average against left handers slid into 3rd base.  Before that moment, Liriano, who had held lefties to a .211 batting average for the year, had shown the dominance we expected of our ace, Target field seemed like a well earned home field advantage, and the invincibility of the Yankees was truly pushed to the back of our minds.  

Sure, Jose Mijares came in and wiggled out of the inning without further damage.  Yes, we were able to grind out another run courtesy of a bases loaded walk, but there was a different feeling in the air.  The shrugs came back, the doubts overcame our swagger, and the Twins of 2010 became the hard luck underdogs of so many years past.  When J.J. Hardy stood at the plate with a chance to sieze back the series in the 7th, it was Sabathia that made the big pitch, and Hardy that flailed helplessly at a ball out of the strike zone.  When Mark Teixiera deposited Jesse Crain's hanging slider into the right field bleachers, you could almost hear 40,000 fans exclaim, "here we go again!" When Jim Thome stepped to the plate in the bottom of the 7th to face righthander David Robertson, we should have been expecting to see the ball drop into Target Plaza.  The Yankees had already used up their only lefthanded reliever, Thome hit .302/.455/.698 against righties this year, and this was the season that the "Yankees curse" would finally be broken.  Instead, when strike three bounced off the dirt to end the inning, it didn't seem as surprising as it should have. 

From that point forward, the series went pretty much the same way.  Every time the Twins had a big opportunity, we were left shaking our heads.  It just never felt like we had a chance after the disappointment of game 1.  In the end, we didn't lose because the Yankees spent more money than us; we didn't lose because they worked harder than us; we didn't even lose because they were better than us.  In my humble opinion, we lost the series because we expected it to happen, and so did they.

Twins vs. The Evil Empire

Friends keep asking me how I could start a Minnesta sports blog and not have anything about the Twins. Before the Randy Moss news, they were unquestionably the biggest news in town. Since I'll be attending the game tonight, I had planned to wait until tomorrow for my first Twins post.

Here are a couple notes on what I feel is the key to game 1, starting pitching:

• Francisco Liriano must find a way to get through the first inning.  His struggles out of the gate have been well documented as he seems to get "too amped up," struggles with his control, and has a hard time getting runners out.  According to Baseball-Reference, Frankie's 2010 numbers stack up like this:
• 1st inning: 5.81 /. 328 / 2.50 (ERA / BA / SO/BB ratio)
• 2nd inning: 4.40 / .225 / 3.40
• 3rd inning: 2.70 / .243 / 5.60
• 4th inning: 2.79 / .220 / 4.71
• Get ahead in the count!  Yankees hitters are not going to chase a lot of 0-0 or 1-0 sliders in the dirt, and Liriano is going to have to find a way to get strike 1 if he's going to be effective. Let's hope he is able to locate his fastball and mix in a change up or two early in the count to keep the hitters off-balance.
• 2010 after 1-0 count: .304 BA / 1.63 SO/BB ratio.
• 2010 after 0-1 count: .214 BA / 7.88 SO/BB ratio. 
• Keep the ball down.  This is important not only because of the obvious power threats in the Yankees lineup, but also because we are clearly a much better defensive team in the infield.  There is a lot of debate about how to judge defensive performance in baseball, but UZR (ultimate zone rating) takes a very impressive and ambitious shot at it.  Essentially, this statistic attempts to show how much better (or worse) a fielder is compared to the major league average at that position. Higher is better, zero is average, and a negative number is below average.  If you're curious about how UZR is calculated, Fan Graphs has a very detailed explaination here.  Based on that, here is how the Twins starters stack up:
• 1B (Cuddyer): -5.9
• 2B (Hudson): 10.4
• SS (Hardy): 8.0
• 3B (Valencia): 5.2
• LF (Young): -9.6
• CF (Span): 5.7
• RF (Kubel): -9.5

More to come...here's hoping for a quick top of the 1st, lots of first pitch strikes, and a plethora of ground balls anywhere other than 1st base!  Go Twins!!

Randy Returns!

When I decided to start this blog, I wasn't sure if I'd be able to find enough to write about..  Fortunately, it seems like I picked a great time to start.

Judd Zulgad of the Star Tribune is reporting the trade official, with the Vikings sending a 3rd round draft pick to the Pats in return for Moss.  Considering that we were willing to part with a 2nd rounder and another pick for Vincent Jackson, this seems like a fair trade to me. 

Why I like the deal:
We need to win, NOW!  I'm not sure if Moss is the missing piece to the puzzle or not, but we need to score points one way or the other.  Whether you like the deal or not, you can't question Moss' ability to stretch the field.  We lack both a deep threat in the passing game, and a dangerous receiver in the red-zone.  Randy has shown for years that he is both.  

Our best player (by far) is AP - we need to lean heavily on the run this year, and Moss' presence should keep defenses from stacking the box against the run.  I think we'll start to see a lot more 80 yard runs like he had against Detroit as defenses will need to keep a safety deep on most plays.

Finally, this should fire up the fan base!  The first 4 weeks of the season have been disappointing to say the least, and this move should get people excited again.  I've also noticed that No. 4 has been spending more time making excuses for the team than throwing touchdown passes and slapping asses.  I expect that this move was made as much to fire up Brett as anyone else.

What's not to like?
Well...nothing really...I'm sure there are people that will talk about Randy taking plays off, making stupid comments to the media, or running over traffic cops, but this is a guy that has more touchdowns this year (3) than our entire offense (2).  He's scored 90 TDs with the Vikes in 7 years, and has 50 with the Pats in just over 3 years.  He's as healthy as he's been in years, and is playing for a new contract.

If none of that get's you pumped up, go into the back of your closet, pull out the #84 jersey you bought in 2000, and wear it with pride once again.  Hey, it's going to be a fun ride!

Wolves: 2010 Season Preview

With the Vikings (fans) taking a much needed week off, and the Twins preparing for Game 1 of the ALDS against the Yankees, the Wolves quietly grabbed some headlines last night with a win over the world champion LA Lakers. OK, so it was a pre-season game played in London and Kobe only played 6 minutes, but it was still a win. Since I didn't actually see the game, I'm not going to try to break it down here. Instead, I'm taking the opportunity to post my annual (and first ever) Wolves season preview.

Given the beating that David Kahn has taken lately (both locally and nationally), I decided it was time to take a real objective look at his tenure as I evaluate our prospects for the season ahead. In order to evaluate where we're at and where we're heading, it helps to take a long (and painful) look back at where we were. Enjoy!

2008-2009 Season:
At the end of this season, the Wolves’ roster was a mess. Al Jefferson, who spent the latter part of the year recovering from a torn ACL, was the franchise player at power forward. Kevin Love had a promising rookie year, which led to a legitimate controversy about the future of the PF position. At center, the Wolves sported a spectacular collection of has-been and never-were types, which led to the hope that Jefferson would be able to play center after making a full recovery. Corey Brewer, coming off a terrible rookie year, was given the opportunity to prove that be belonged in the NBA. After a promising start, he was also lost for the year, leaving another position with serious questions. Brewer’s injury forced Mike Miller out of position to the SF position, and created an even larger hole at the off-guard. Ryan Gomes and Craig Smith were serviceable backups and fan favorites on a terrible team with virtually zero star power, and even less balance in the lineup. In the backcourt, Randy Foye and “Bassy” Telfair shared duties at the point, and occasionally played together, both due to Foye’s inability to effectively run the offense, and the lack of any true option at the two. Rashad McCants had long worn out his welcome in Minnesota, while Rodney Carney showed glimpses of potential as he attempted to convince some team that he deserved another NBA contract. Filling out the bench were veteran team guys Brian Cardinal and Kevin Ollie. McCants was traded to the Kings late in the season for Sheldon Williams and Bobby Brown in a swap of unwanted expiring contracts.

Results: 24 wins

Roster:
Al Jefferson
Jason Collins
Mike Miller
Kevin Love
Calvin Booth
Ryan Gomes
Craig Smith
Mark Madsen
Corey Brewer
Brian Cardinal
Sheldon Williams
Randy Foye
Rashad McCants
Sebastian Telfair
Rodney Carney
Kevin Ollie
Bobby Brown

2009-2010 Season:
David Kahn did not waste time in making roster moves after taking over for Kevin McHale prior to the 2009 season. The power forward position, clearly the strength of the team in terms of overall talent, remained pretty much the same. In an effort to clear space (salary and roster), Kahn traded Smith, Telfair and Madsen to the Clippers for Q. Richardson, who was then shipped to Miami for Mark Blount and his expiring contract. The center position, rich on free agents and poor on talent, turned over completely. Kahn then traded former cornerstones Foye and Miller to Washington for the #5 draft pick and filler. After a bit more dealing, the Wolves ended up with Pecherov and Wilkins as the extra pieces in the Wizards deal. In order to replenish the depth at the center position, Kahn picked up big man projects Ryan Hollins and Nathan “Outback Shaq” Jawai from Dallas, in two separate transactions. After Ricky Rubio decided he’d prefer to stay in Europe, Kahn made his first major free agent signing in Ramon Sessions,. After the Sessions signing, Sasha Pavlovic and Jason Hart decided to join the rebuilding effort on one year contracts. Rich in draft picks, Kahn decided to stock the backcourt by selecting Flynn and Rubio, and added Wayne Ellington late in the first round. Ty Lawson was also selected, though he was shipped to Denver for a future first rounder in a pre-arranged trade. Prior to the trade deadline, Kahn acquired Milicic and Tucker for extended try-outs in exchange for Brian Cardinal and Jason Hart.

Results: 15 wins

Al Jefferson
Darko Milicic
Ryan Gomes
Kevin Love
Ryan Hollins
Damien Wilkins
Brian Cardinal
Oleksiv Pecherov
Sasha Pavlovic
Nathan Jawai
Jonny Flynn
Corey Brewer
Ramon Sessions
Wayne Ellington
Jason Hart
Alando Tucker

2010-2011 Season:
While still a work in progress, the roster continues to evolve. If you squint your eyes slightly, you can start to see the pieces of the puzzle come together. Whether that leads to results on the floor is yet to be determined. The power forward picture, once promising but unclear, is starting to take shape as Kevin Love is expected to get an opportunity to prove his talents over a full season. It should be an interesting year at center, with Serbian imports Milicic and Pekovic providing size and (unproven) talent in the middle. Another foreign (sounding) big man, Kosta Koufos provides further depth at the position. The biggest news of the off-season was the Al Jefferson trade, which opened the door for K-Love, cleared massive amounts of salary off the books, and netted the team two future first round draft picks in addition to Koufos. It also opened another front court spot for Michael Beasley, the multi-talented former #2 overall pick who was obtained from Miami for next to nothing. Kahn’s second draft added talent and versatility on the wing with Wesley Johnson, Martell Webster, and Lazar Hayward. Luke Ridnour replaces Ramon Sessions, who was shipped off to Cleveland along with Ryan Hollins in exchange for Telfair and Delonte West. West’s partially guaranteed contract and gun toting tendencies were quickly shed, while Telfair was retained as insurance after Jonny Flynn had off-season hip surgery. The signing of Anthony Tolliver gives the team another young versatile frontcourt player. The current version of the young Wolves boasts multiple line-up options consisting entirely of top 7 draft picks (Milicic (2), Beasley (2), Johnson (4), Love (5), Flynn (6), Webster (6), Brewer (7)).

Results: ??

Kevin Love
Darko Milicic
Michael Beasley
Anthony Tolliver
Nikola Pekovic
Wesley Johnson
Kosta Koufos
Lazar Hayward
Luke Ridnour
Martell Webster
Jonny Flynn
Corey Brewer
Sebastian Telfair
Wayne Ellington

The Timberwolves of 2010 are not likely to make the playoffs in a stacked western conference. It is also likely that they will take some time to establish an identity within the “triangle-like” offense preferred by Kurt Rambis. The team still has no true star power, and will likely need to experiment with a number of starting lineups throughout the year.

Now the good news…

This team is loaded with young, athletic, versatile players who, if they can learn to play together, should show significant improvement over the course of the season. You can make an argument (if you really want to) that the team has improved at every position, and has certainly gotten stronger when viewed as a whole.

PF: Quite simply, Kevin Love deserves a chance to show what he can do in the starting lineup. His rebounding, passing, and high basketball IQ make him an important component, even if he will never be the “go to guy.” It is more likely that Beasley will slide into this spot when Love is on the bench, but Tolliver and perhaps even Hayward should get some time here as well.

C: The commitment to Darko was demonstrated both by signing him to a long term deal and by trading away Jefferson and the temptation to play him out of position at center. These moves could prove to be either brilliant or idiotic depending on how Love and Milicic perform. $5 million per year is a steal for a highly skilled, athletic seven footer who can play at both ends of the floor. Giving the same contract to the #2 overall pick in the 2003 draft who has yet to earn a starting job in the NBA is quite the risk. Providing insurance at the position is Nikola Pekovic, another massive Serbian with the size and skill to play center in the NBA. Koufos gives the Wolves another young 7 footer to fill out the bench, and a valuable trade asset down the road.

SF/SG: If one thing was clear after last season’s train wreck, it was that the team needed more athletes and better outside shooters on the wing. Many of the players in this category can play multiple positions on the floor. Both Corey Brewer and Martell Webster have NBA experience at both the two and three. I suspect that rookie Wes Johnson will see time at both spots as well, while Beasley and Hayward are capable of playing both forward spots. Wayne Ellington, probably the only true shooting guard in the group, showed marked improvement late last season and had a strong showing in the 2010 Las Vegas summer league.

PG: Despite a number of moves intended to secure this important position, there are still many questions here. Jonny Flynn, thought to be the “current point guard of the future” for the Wolves, recently had hip surgery and will miss the start of the season. Luke Ridnour, who was expected to be Flynn’s backup, will begin the season as the starter after Sessions’ departure via trade. Telfair provides a decent backup option at the point until Flynn returns, at which point he could be traded or released. The bigger story is if and when Spanish sensation Ricky Rubio decides to make the jump to the NBA and the waiting Timberwolves. In any case, that is a story for next summer when he has a buy out clause in his current contract with Barcelona.

Since David Kahn took the reigns just over a year ago, the Wolves have undergone a massive transformation. They have gotten younger (average age is less than 24 years), longer (average height of 6’7’’), more athletic, and much, much cheaper (2010 payroll of approx. $45 million). In addition to this, they continue to stockpile draftpicks and NBA draft rights (Rubio, Bjelica, Prestes…) for the future. In a perfect world, the young talent would start to show, the players would become comfortable with the system, and we’d see obvious improvement. The talented and improving team would use expendable assets and cap space to trade for a legitimate star player, convince Rubio to travel across the pond, and set its sights on the playoffs in 2012. Clearly, a lot of pieces have to fall into place for this to happen, but I’m much more optimistic about the future of the franchise than I have been for quite some time.